The Oscars are back for the 90th time, this Sunday on ABC at 6:30 p.m. Mountain time, and we all totally care. My enthusiasm is at an all-time low for this list of nominees, which managed to omit many of my favorite films (where is Good Time! Mother!! The Killing of a Sacred Deer! Detroit!). Still, the competitive spirit is strong, and these Oscar ballots aren’t going to fill themselves out, so let’s take a look at this year’s horses:

Best Picture nominees

Call Me by Your Name; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; Get Out; Lady Bird; Phantom Thread; Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri; The Post; The Shape of Water

It’s a dead heat between Three Billboards, which I loved (despite an unforgivable comma in the title), and The Shape of Water, a rated-R romance for babies. The once reliable Best Picture race has been all over the map the last two years. Many are predicting that Three Billboards will pull out from behind. This was a tough one to call, but I’m going with: The Shape of Water

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water; Frances McDormand, Three Billboards; Margot Robbie, I, Tonya; Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird; Meryl Streep, The Post

There’s a lot of talent in this category, but the mob has spoken, and the mob likes anger. She’s swept every major award thus far, but who knows, maybe Saoirse Ronan will come out of nowhere to represent Lady Bird? Will win: Frances McDormand

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name; Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread; Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out; Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour; Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

It’s basically a lifetime achievement award for Oldman, one of the best actors we have, but who among us has seen this boring, somber biopic? Not me! Will win: Gary Oldman

three billboards

Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound; Allison Janney, I, Tonya; Leslie Manville, Phantom Thread; Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird; Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

If ever there’s a surprise in the acting wins, we usually see it in the supporting categories. Here it’s between Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf, both of whom play cranky mothers in their own special way. Janney’s been winning everything. A win for her here will represent the underrepresented I, Tonya. Will win: Allison Janney

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project; Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards; Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water; Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World; Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

The heavy favorite here is Sam Rockwell, and it will be great when I’m wrong and he wins, but I have to stick my neck out somewhere. Since this will be Dafoe’s third nomination (with no wins), since the critics loved The Florida Project and it’s not nominated anywhere else, I’m going to take my chances and say: Willem Dafoe

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water; Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk; Jordan Peele, Get Out; Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird; Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Sweeping the other awards this year makes the category a lock for the fish monster master. Historically, whoever wins best director wins best picture, but that rule hasn’t held up the last several years. Martin McDonagh wasn’t even nominated, and Three Billboards still has a fighting chance. It’s a world gone mad. Will win: Guillermo del Toro

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